What volatility? Markets shrug off global issues
Despite the latest crisis in Iraq and the renewed escalation of tensions in Ukraine, markets remain relaxed with little volatility. Other potential flashpoints; including the unresolved crisis in Thailand, new terrorist outrages in Nigeria and Kenya; and economic and political instability in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey, have also failed to increase volatility.
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Published on 25 Jun 14
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Despite the latest crisis in Iraq and the renewed escalation of tensions in Ukraine, markets remain relaxed with little volatility. Other potential flashpoints; including the unresolved crisis in Thailand, new terrorist outrages in Nigeria and Kenya; and economic and political instability in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey, have also failed to increase volatility.
Sponsor - Wealth Know How
Wealth Know How is the online network helping people manage their wealth through financial education. Whether you are looking for simple ways to better manage your cash, or you are after a complete strategy on how to save for retirement, we can help you understand your options. It is important to have a vision for your future, but its knowledge not dreams that will ultimately deliver financial success.
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We can think of at least three reasons why volatility has not increased:
- There has been no real contagion from the various geo-political events. The market perceives the ramifications for most other countries from these events to be small;
- The geo-political events have mainly involved smaller countries rather than large economies like China or the USA; and
- The possibility of abrupt monetary tightening from major central banks is low with the European Central Bank still loosening.
Things could change if the oil price rises. For example if the tensions in Iraq cause Brent oil prices to rise beyond $120 per barrel. However, global oil prices have risen by only a few dollars and are not that far off the average of $110 since the "Arab Spring" began in 2011. This is not surprising as the current unrest is yet to cause disruption to Iraq’s oil exports.Funnily enough, Iran’s assistance in resolving the Iraq crisis might clear the way for a further easing of Western sanctions on Iran's energy exports. It could even lead to an improvement in relations between the US and Iran.
Saying all that, when Brent oil prices spiked above $120 in early 2011 and 2012, the recovery in the world economy faltered.
Another potential energy dilemma is unfolding in Russia, where the tripartite talks over Ukraine's unpaid debts on Russian gas have collapsed. As a result, Gazprom has announced it will now restrict supplies to Ukraine. This is likely to keep tensions high; and could disrupt the flow of natural gas to Western Europe via Ukraine.
However, customers in the EU are well prepared for this scenario; and Russia will do everything possible to maintain energy supplies to the West.
We have seen the gold price rise a little on the back of these renewed tensions. That said, I think gold is more likely being driven by the increasing talk about inflation risks; and a market that is not completely confident the US Federal Reserve can manage this risk.